Week 24 of the 2025/26 ZPL National League arrives at a decisive point in the campaign. At the summit, Makeni All Stars lead with 48 points, chased closely by Chirundu United (44) and Roan United (43). In mid-table, ambition and survival intersect. At the bottom, Riverplate, Kitwe United and Mpulungu Harbour are staring at relegation mathematics that grows harsher with each round.

This weekend’s fixtures are not routine. They carry promotion consequences, playoff implications, and survival ramifications. Below is a detailed breakdown of what is at stake in each encounter.

Riverplate (17th, 18 pts) vs Trident (5th, 41 pts)

Independence Stadium | Saturday | 15:00hrs

Riverplate approach this fixture from 17th position with just 18 points from 23 matches. With only three wins all season and 30 goals conceded, they remain firmly inside the relegation zone. Every remaining home game is now strategically vital. A defeat here could widen the survival gap and deepen pressure on the technical bench.

Trident, by contrast, sit 5th with 41 points and remain mathematically alive in the promotion conversation. They are seven points behind second-placed Chirundu United, meaning consistency is non-negotiable. Against a struggling opponent, anything less than maximum points would represent a missed opportunity in the race for the top two.

From a tactical perspective, Trident’s balanced record — 26 scored, 14 conceded — reflects structure and efficiency. Riverplate’s defensive instability could be exposed if they allow Trident to control midfield tempo. However, desperation often produces intensity, and Riverplate will likely adopt a compact shape aimed at frustrating early dominance.

Analytical Perspective: This is a classic high-stakes asymmetry — one team fighting for survival, the other chasing elevation. The psychological weight rests heavier on Riverplate, but Trident carry the expectation. The first goal could define the entire match dynamic.

Ndola United (11th, 25 pts) vs Aguila Stars (8th, 35 pts)

Musa Kasonka Stadium | Saturday | 15:00hrs

Ndola United sit 11th with 25 points and a -6 goal difference. They are not in immediate relegation danger, yet they are not comfortably secure either. A poor run could drag them into the survival conversation, making home fixtures essential opportunities to stabilise their position.

Aguila Stars, currently 8th with 35 points, are positioned in the league’s competitive middle tier. They are ten points off the promotion places but still within reach of the top six. Their attacking return of 35 goals — among the strongest in the division — signals offensive capability that Ndola must contain.

This fixture carries layered stakes. For Ndola, it is about distance from the bottom cluster. For Aguila, it is about momentum and upward movement. The contrast between Ndola’s reactive style and Aguila’s forward emphasis could shape the tempo of the encounter.

Match Interpretation: Expect Aguila to attempt territorial control, while Ndola prioritise defensive compactness and transitional opportunities. It may not be expansive football, but it will be tactically charged.

Lumwana Radiants (7th, 36 pts) vs Roan United (3rd, 43 pts)

Lumwana Ground | Saturday | 15:00hrs

Lumwana Radiants occupy 7th place with 36 points and a respectable +8 goal difference. They have shown competitiveness throughout the campaign but have struggled to convert consistency into sustained upward momentum. A result here could reignite ambitions of finishing inside the promotion-adjacent positions.

Roan United, in 3rd place with 43 points, are firmly entrenched in the title and promotion race. Their defensive record — just 13 goals conceded — is one of the best in the league, reflecting tactical discipline and structural balance.

This is a measuring-stick fixture for Lumwana. Facing a promotion contender at home provides an opportunity to demonstrate maturity and resilience. For Roan, it is about maintaining pressure on Makeni and Chirundu.

Competitive Outlook: Roan’s defensive compactness could neutralise Lumwana’s attacking impulses. However, home atmosphere and tactical adaptability may turn this into a tightly contested affair decided by fine margins.

Jumulo (15th, 21 pts) vs Forest Rangers (4th, 41 pts)

Baluba School Ground | Saturday | 15:00hrs

Jumulo sit 15th with 21 points, only marginally above the relegation positions. Their -9 goal difference underlines defensive fragility, particularly when facing high-quality opposition. Points at home are now essential rather than optional.

Forest Rangers, 4th with 41 points, remain in close proximity to the automatic promotion places. With 27 goals scored and only 15 conceded, they demonstrate structural reliability at both ends of the pitch.

For Forest Rangers, this fixture represents opportunity. For Jumulo, it represents survival urgency. The contrast in league position is significant, but desperation can narrow perceived gaps.

Footballing Context: Forest’s composure and tactical organisation give them an edge, yet Jumulo’s need for points could make them aggressive and direct. Control of midfield transitions will be decisive.

Indeni (9th, 28 pts) vs Makeni All Stars (1st, 48 pts)

Indeni Sports Complex | Saturday | 15:00hrs

Indeni are 9th with 28 points, positioned comfortably in mid-table but not immune to downward drift. Their -4 goal difference highlights inconsistency, particularly in closing out matches.

Makeni All Stars lead the league with 48 points and boast the best goal difference (+20). With 35 goals scored and only 15 conceded, they combine attacking fluency with defensive discipline. Promotion is increasingly within reach, but complacency would be costly.

Indeni will likely approach this match without external pressure, a factor that can make mid-table sides unpredictable against leaders.

Strategic Angle: Leaders must manage expectation and tempo. If Makeni impose structure early, they should secure control. However, Indeni’s freedom from pressure could create moments of disruption.

Chirundu United (2nd, 44 pts) vs Kitwe United (16th, 21 pts)

Edwin Imboela Stadium | Saturday | 15:00hrs

Chirundu United sit second with 44 points and possess the league’s strongest defensive record — only 12 goals conceded. They are four points behind Makeni and cannot afford dropped points in home fixtures.

Kitwe United, 16th with 21 points and a -13 goal difference, remain entrenched in the relegation battle. Their defensive instability has been a recurring issue.

This fixture places contrasting ambitions side by side: promotion pursuit versus relegation avoidance.

Tactical Forecast: Chirundu’s structure should dominate possession phases, while Kitwe may adopt a compact, risk-averse approach. The longer Kitwe keep the match level, the more psychological pressure shifts to the hosts.

SUNDAY – 22ND FEBRUARY 2026

Chipata City Council (13th, 22 pts) vs Kafue Celtic (6th, 40 pts)

David Kaunda Stadium | 15:00hrs

Chipata City Council are 13th with 22 points and carry a -17 goal difference, one of the poorest defensive returns in the league. Their survival equation is tightening.

Kafue Celtic, 6th with 40 points, are within reach of the promotion cluster. A win could narrow the gap and reinforce their competitive credentials.

Chipata must address defensive transitions, while Kafue will seek to apply sustained attacking pressure.

Game Scenario: Expect structured dominance from Kafue, but Chipata’s urgency may produce an open and physically demanding encounter.

Locus FC (14th, 21 pts) vs Atletico Lusaka (10th, 26 pts)

Nationality Stadium | 15:00hrs

Locus FC sit 14th with 21 points and remain perilously close to the drop zone. Atletico Lusaka, 10th with 26 points, hold a slight buffer but are not entirely safe.

This is a fixture shaped by caution. Neither side can afford defensive lapses.

Competitive Frame: Expect tactical conservatism early, with calculated risk-taking as the match progresses. The first goal could dramatically alter risk tolerance levels.

Week 24 is not merely another round — it is a structural checkpoint in the 2025/26 campaign. Promotion hopefuls must convert dominance into points, while survival candidates must transform urgency into results. At this stage of the season, margins are thin and consequences magnified.